I didn't know if we could trust them, nobody knew if we could trust them.
But in 2024, Polymarket was vindicated and proved themselves, for the time being, more trustworthy than our polls.
Some of the polls now, starting with NY Times Sienna:
Yeah, the polling game may have just changed forever.
It was all about the gambling market in 2024, and the odds given by the market ended up pretty much nailing it.
The house always wins, as they say, and they seem to have hit this one right on the head.
Gamblers spent A LOT of money on the election through Polymarket and other political gambling apps.
At least $3.3 billion, to be precise.
And the media HATED it.
Mother Jones also theorized that Polymarket could be used to steal the election for Trump.
They were one of the few indicators pointing to a likely Trump win, and the media went after them for being influenced and for market manipulation.
Oh, and the Frenchman the media accused of manipulating the market? Yeah, he won.
BIG.
And he's not alone in winning big.
This was the final election day post from Polymarket before the tallies came in.
And here's what they look like this afternoon.
They were pretty darn close.
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